$238.63
−$0.61 (−0.25%)
52-week range
The put/call ratio compares open puts with open calls. For Oct 14 it is 0.59: traders hold 1.7 calls for every put (8.1K puts against 13.7K calls).
Today's trading leans the other way, with 1.8 puts traded per call.
The expected move is the swing that option prices point to by expiry. Here it is ±$6.98 (2.9%) by Oct 14, from the price of the at-the-money straddle (one call plus one put). That puts the stock between roughly $231.66 and $245.61.
Open interest is the number of option contracts still open. It is like the number of tickets still held for an event. Volume counts only the contracts traded today.
The biggest call position is at $260, with 2.1K contracts. The biggest put position is at $237.50, with 1.2K.
Max pain is the closing price at which option holders, as a group, would collect the least. Think of it as the price where the most tickets would expire worthless.
For Oct 14, max pain is $235, $3.63 below today's price. If the stock closed there on expiry day, option holders would collect about $2.2M in total, less than at any other strike. The theory is that dealer hedging pulls the price toward it near expiry. In practice it is a loose tendency, not a forecast.
This curve shows how likely each closing price is, based on today's at-the-money IV. Taller means more likely. The shaded band holds the middle 68% of outcomes.
This curve uses one volatility for every price. Real markets see big moves more often than this, which is what the volatility smile charges for.
At 26% volatility, there is a 68% chance NVDA closes between $230.13 and $247.47 on Oct 14. There is a 95% chance it closes between $221.92 and $256.62. The chance of closing above $260, the strike with the most call open interest, is 1%. The chance of closing below $237.50, the busiest put strike, is 45%.
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